Scroll down for news items, more details on the structure of the website, and contact info.

The Myth of Housing Wealth Inequality: Previous research in the UK has suggested that inequality in housing wealth has been increasing inexorably. This paper challenges these findings and reveals how housing wealth tends to move in cycles with no obvious upward trend.

Are we becoming more concerned about the environment? There has been a huge increase in media coverage of environmental issues, particularly climate change. But is there any evidence that our attitudes or behaviour has changed as a result? Click here to find out.

Flood Risk and Housing: An International Perspective: This paper surveys the implications of increased flood risk for housing systems across the world. It considers how global warming will affect house prices, insurance, mortgage lending, and migration. The paper also reflects on adaptation strategies and the role of planning.

Myopia & Amnesia in Housing Market Responses to Flood Risk: Drawing on the psychology and sociology literatures, this paper constructs a theoretical housing economic model of house price responses to flood risks and climate change. Rational economic man is discarded in favour of myopic and amnesiac consumers.

The Four Fallacies of Flood Risk Research: Should we really be celebrating the sluggish response of house prices to flood risk? Or is the inertia a portent of calamity to come? This paper reviews the housing economics of flood risk, points out the pitfalls and how to avoid them. 

I Looked and Saw Homes Linked Like a Lattice: The fragmentation of housing markets into multiple segments belies an underlying network connecting all homes in chain of substitution. This network is the foundation on which boundaries rest and the basis of our true understanding of submarkets. Click here to find out more!

Are Glaswegians Going Cockney? This article explores how television programs such as Eastenders affect the speech patterns of youths from inner city Glasgow. Click here to download the research paper. Contact Dr Jane Stuart-Smith (j.stuart-smith@englang.arts.gla.ac.uk) for more details.

The Role of Selling Time in Oiling the Wheels of the Market: How do sellers know what price to set? Retailers reduce prices if items are taking a long time to sell and stocks are increasing. This paper proposes that a similar process may be at work in the market for homes. 

Correcting  for Transactions Bias in House Price Indices: Most published indices of house prices are based on transactions. But properties that trade are not necessarily a random selection from the total stock of dwellings. This paper proposes a possible solution using Fractional Probit Regression to compute an area based correction term.

The Financial Crisis and the Housing Sector: Consequences for Society, the Family and Home-ownership: presentation at the 2009 Nordic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland, 26th November 2009. Click here for the presentation, click here for the conference theme, click here for the programme.

Spatial Variation in Bidding Conventions and the Degree of Over-pricing: An Analysis of the Housing Market in the West End of Glasgow by Gwilym Pryce. Click here to download the Centre for Public Policy and the Regions Discussion Paper. Click here to go to the CPPR website.

Dwelling Substitutability and the Delineation of Submarkets by Gwilym Pryce. Click here to download the Centre for Public Policy and the Regions Discussion Paper. Click here to go to the CPPR website.

Who Loves You Baby? Organisations and the Issue of Multiple Identities by Pate, J., Beaumont, P. and Pryce, G. (2009) Journal of Information and Knowledge Management Systems, 39, 4,  319-338. Click here to download the working paper.

Responding to the repossessions crisis. Housing Analysis and Surveys Expert Panel Papers, 7, Communities and Local Government. Click here to download.

Understanding the Drivers of the Price Elasticity of House Supply by Eric Levin and Gwilym Pryce. This paper considers the determinants of the responsiveness of new construction to changes in house price. Click here to download.

New RICS Regional House Price Model of Excess Demand for Housing by Eric Levin and Gwilym Pryce. Click here to access the full technical report. Click here to access the RICS non-technical summary and further details.

Housing Cycles, Financial Crises and the Supply of Housing: seminar on 15th May 2009 with presentations by Kate Barker, Eric Levin, Gwilym Pryce. Click here for the seminar programme. Click here for the Levin and Pryce slides. Click here for the Levin and Pryce research paper. Click here for Kate Barker's presentation.

What can we learn from the language of estate agency? RICS research summary of research by Pryce & Oates. Click here.

Credit Crunch and the Housing Market: presentation at the International House and Home Warranty Conference, Sept 2008. Click here.

New £1.6m EPSRC project on the effects of extreme weather. Click here for the CREW website and here for a non-technical summary of the project.

Outlook for UK Housing: Are We Reaping What We Have Sown? Click here for working paper, click here for slides.

Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change -presentation delivered as part of the Paying for Welfare lecture series. Click here.

Aristotle – Patron Saint of Estate Agents and his guide to successful estate agency.  Click here.

Despised, Rejected & Acquainted with Grief: The Tragic Tale of Mortgage Interest Deduction. Click here.

Thinking of a Makeover? Better Forget About the New Conservatory: Click here for link to atrticle by Jeremy Watson (The Herald, 26 Nov 2006).

Do Estate Agents Influence the Market? Can they be blamed for extreme bids during a boom? Click here for slides (presentation to National Association of Estate Agents).

Can we Trust UK House Price Indices? A Detox Programme for the Index Addicted. Click here for Glasgow Uni Newsletter article.

The website material is set out under the following categories:

Statistics & SPSS: lecture slides, SPSS macros, datasets, syntax, information on lectures and reading material associated with courses taught and/or coordinated by Prof Pryce and his new textbook. 

Housing Research: free downloads and research outputs on a range of housing, mortgage markets and related research topics.

Publications & CV: publications, working papers and curriculum vitae.

Belief: thoughts and essays on faith and philosophy.

Inter alia: quotes and anecdotes, cartoons, caricatures, illustrations, family photos and personal stuff (password required for some files).

Contact Details and Links: Professor Pryce's contact details and links to a variety of sites including teaching sites, SPSS resources and church/religious links.

For more details on Gwilym's publications and teaching, click here.

If you have any queries or comments about the content of these pages or if you are interested in finding out more about Prof Pryce's research and consultancy, please email him at the following address:  

g@gwilympryce.co.uk

or contact him at his work address:

    Prof Gwilym Pryce
    Deputy Director of the Graduate School (Social Sciences)
    Department of Urban Studies
    University of Glasgow
    25 Bute Gardens
    Glasgow
    G12 8RS

Email:           g.pryce@socsci.gla.ac.uk
Tel:               0141 330 5048

Current CV:  available from here.

COS profile:  http://myprofile.cos.com/GwilymPryce
Web page:    www.gla.ac.uk/departments/urbanstudies/staff/pryceg.html

For Gwilym's current CV click here.

Gwilym is currently the Professor of Urban Economics and Social Statistics in the department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow.  He is the Founding Chair of SHEFRN (the Scottish Housing Economics and Finance Research Network).

Gwilym’s background is in economics (BA Hons Economics & Public Policy, 1st Class, Leeds Met 1988-1991; MSc Economics, Warwick 1992-1993; PhD Economics, Part-Time, Scottish Doctoral Programme 1995-1999), but has spent most of his academic career in an inter-disciplinary environment (Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasogw, 1995-present). His first job at the University of Glasgow was as an ESRC Research Fellow working on housing supply, mortgage default, and the inter-generational impacts of housing market structures.  He progressed to a Lectureship in 1996, then to the Deputy Directorship of the Graduate School in the Faculty of Social Science in 2001, Senior Lecturship in 2003, and to a Professorship in Urban Economics and Social Statistics in 2006.  Over that period, his interests have broadened to include research on linguistics (researching speech patterns in adolescents); textual analysis (analysing the language of marketing); criminology (looking at the socio-economic drivers and impacts of crime); and theology (researching the links between beliefs and decision making).

His core research interests, however, remain in the field of urban economics, and most of his research publications (over 50 journal articles, published reports, book chapters and books) have been on housing and mortgage markets.  His work spans a wide spectrum from highly technical/theoretical work published in leading international academic journals in his field (such as Real Estate Economics and Journal of Urban Economics), to applied policy reports for government departments and articles in industry periodicals.  His work has been cited in major policy reports (such as the HM Treasury Barker Review of Housing Supply, 2003) and in high-level commercial documents (such papers prepared for the Basel conference of Central Bank Economists in 2003). His paper “Social Segmentation, Housing Submarkets and Dwelling Substitutability” won the The Hypoteční Banka Award for the best European Network of Housing Research 2009 Conference Paper, and his 'Outlook for UK housing' IJHMA paper, co-authored with Nigel Sprigings, was designated as a Highly Commended Paper at the Literati Network Awards for Excellence 2010. 

Gwilym has been an expert advisor at a senior policy level in Central Government (to Yvette Cooper – the Minister for Housing and Planning – on Housing Wealth Inequality, and to Kate Barker CBE – Member of the Monetary Policy Committee – on both Stages I and II of the HM Treasury Review of Housing Supply). He has recently been appointed to the Expert Panel on Planning and Housing (Department of Communities and Local Government).

He has provided research, consultancy and advice to a wide variety of private and public sector ogranisations (including the Office of Fair Trading, Monopolies & Mergers Commission, Cabinet Office, European Commission, Department of Trade and Industry, Royal Institution for Chartered Surveyors, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister/Department of Communities and Local Government, Council for Mortgage Lenders, National Assembly for Wales, Federal National Mortgage Association, House Building Federation, Strathclyde Police, and various Local Authorities).

He is currently the Principal Investigator on the EWESEM (Extreme Weather Event Socio-Economic Model) project -- a key component of the £1.6m EPSRC CREW (Community Resilience to Extreme Weather) consortium. He is also an Associate Researcher for the Scottish Centre for Research on Social Justice, a Co-Director of the Economics of Crime Unit in the Department of Urban Studies and is a member of the International Centre for Housing and Urban Economics (University of Reading). Gwilym is also on the Editorial Board of a number of international journals (including the European Journal of Housing Policy, Journal of Property Research, and the International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis).  He is the Chair of the Housing Research Group (University of Glasgow) and Founding Chair of the Scottish Housing Economics and Finance Research Network. He has been an external examiner on PhDs at the Universities of Melbourne and Reading.

PhD Economics (University of Glasgow, 1999); MSc Economics (University of Warwick, 1993); BA Hons (First Class) Economics and Public Policy (Leeds Business School, 1991)

Impact of climate change and flood risk on house prices and employment; demand and supply of housing, house price index calculation, housing submarkets, mortgage markets.

* Consultant to Oxford Analytica on credit crunch and real estate downturn (2008)

* Consultant to Financial Services Authority (review of UK subprime mortgage research, 2008)

* Member of Government Expert Panel on Housing Markets and Planning Analysis (CLG 2007 to date)

* Expert advisor to CLG/Yvette Cooper on Housing Wealth Inequality (2007)

* Commissioned by Central Economic Advice to advise on housing submarket boundaries in South East (2006)

* Member of ODPM Sustainability Advisory Group (2005)

* Member of ODPM Affordability Advisory Group (2005)

* Member of the Post-Barker Advisory Group (ODPM/HM Treasury, 2004-2005)

* Academic Consultant on both Stage I and Stage II of the HM Treasury Barker Review of Housing Supply (2003-2004)

* Consultant to GSPC on development of submarket house price indices (2002 to date)

* Research Consultant to the Fannie Mae Foundation (Federal National Mortgage Association, on mortgage interest deductability, 2001)

* Research Consultant to National Assembly for Wales (Review of Private Rented Sector in Wales, 2001)

* Advisor to Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (on the poverty trap effects of Housing Benefit, 2000)

* Research Consultant to Council for Mortgage Lenders (Evaluating the Mortgage Safety Net, 2000)

Pryce, G. (forthcoming) Bidding Conventions and the Degree of Over-pricing in the Market for Houses, Urban Studies

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2009) 'What Determines the Price Elasticity of House Supply? Real Interest Rate Effects and Cyclical Asymmetries', Housing Studies, (24), pp.713-736.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2009) A regional house price model of excess demand for housing, RICS Research Report May 2009, ISBN 978-2-84219-510-9.

Pryce, G. (2009) Language of Selling and Science of Persuasion, Keller Centre Report, click here. http://www.baylor.edu/business/kellercenter/index.php?id=65466

Pryce, G. (2009) Responding to the Impending Repossessions Crisis, Housing Analysis and Surveys Expert Panel Papers, 7, Communities and Local Government.

Pate, J., Beaumont, P. and Pryce, G. (2009) 'Organisations and the issue of multiple identities: who loves you baby?', Journal of Information and Knowledge Management Systems, 39(4), pp.319-338.

Pryce, G. and Sprigings, N. (2009) 'Outlook for UK housing and the implications for policy: Are we reaping what we have sown?', International Journal of Housing Market Analysis, 2(2), pp.145-166. Designated as a Highly Commended Paper at the Literati Network Awards for Excellence 2010.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2008) Measuring Changes in Housing Wealth Inequality, London: Department of Communities and Local Government.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2008) 'Beyond Reason', Residential Property Journal, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, August/September 2008.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2008) 'What will shape the future of UK housing?', British Urban Regeneration Association Journal, 2(1), pp.8-9.

Meen, G., Andrew, M., Ball, M. Goody, J., Kasparova, D., Pryce, G., Whitehead, C., Wood, G. (2008) Recent Developments in the Communities and Local Government Affordability Model, London: Department for Communities and Local Government.

Pryce, G., Mackay, D., Fowler, H., Jones, K., Shao, L. and Wood, G. (2008) 'Local Effects of Global Climate Change', British Urban Regeneration Association Journal, 2(2).

Pryce, G. and Oates, S. (2008) The Language of Estate Agency, Findings in Built and Rural Environment, London: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

Pryce, G. and Oates, S. (2008) 'Rhetoric in the Language of Real Estate Marketing', Housing Studies, 23(2), pp.319-348.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2007) 'A Statistical Explanation for Extreme Bids in the House Market', Urban Studies, 44(12), pp.2339-2355. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Brown, S. (2007) Is it possible to identify housing sub-markets? Testing a new approach, London: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Findings in Built and Rural Environment, June 2007.

Pryce, G. and Evans, G. (2007) Identifying Submarkets at the Sub-Regional Level in England, London: Department of Communities and Local Government.

Hendershott, P. and Pryce, G. (2006) 'The Sensitivity of Homeowner Leverage to the Deductability of Home Mortgage Interest', Journal of Urban Economics 60(1): pp.50-68. Click here to download.

ODPM (2006) Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Summary, New Horizons Research Summary Number 3: April 2006, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/c.

Pryce, G and Gibb, K. (2006) 'Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale', Real Estate Economics, 34(3), pp.377-415. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Mason, P. (2006) Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Technical Report, London: Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/a.
 
Pryce, G. and Mason, P. (2006) Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Policy Implications Report, London: Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/b.

Pryce, G. (2005) Inference and Statistics in SPSS, Glasgow: GeeBeeJey Publishing ISBN 0-9551433-0-6.

Bowie-Cairns, H. and Pryce, G. (2005) 'Trends in mortgage borrowers' repayment difficulties', Housing Finance, July, pp.1-12. http://www.cml.org.uk/servlet/dycon/zt-cml/cml/live/en/cml/pdf_pub_hf_11-2005.pdf

Hendershott, P.H. and Pryce, G. (2005) 'The Sensitivity of Homeowner Leverage to the Deductibility of Home Mortgage Interest', NBER Working Paper No. 11489, Cambridge: MA; http://www.nber.org/papers/w11489.pdf

Stoddart, E. and Pryce, G. (2005) Observed Aversion to Raising Hell in Pastoral Care: the Conflict Between Doctrine and Practicem, Journal of Empirical Theology , 18(2) pp.129-153. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. (2004) The Micro and Macro Effects of the Location of New Housing Supply, London: Office of the Deputy Prime Minister.

Pryce, G. (2003) 'Greening by the market? Distortions caused by fiscal incentives to build on brownfield land', Housing Studies, 18(4). Click here to download

Pryce, G. (2003) 'Worst of the good and best of the bad: adverse selection consequences of risk pricing', Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 21(6). Click here to download.

Bailey, N., Flint, J., Goodlad, R., Shucksmith, M., Fitzpatrick, S., and Pryce, G. (2003) Measuring deprivation in Scotland: developing a long-term strategy, Final report, Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Central Statistics Unit.

Hendershott, P., Pryce, G. and White, M. (2003) 'Household leverage and the deductibility of home mortgage interest: evidence from UK house purchasers', Journal of Housing Research, 14(1). Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Gibb, K. (2003) Does residential new construction boost or depress the adjacent market for second hand homes?, York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

Pryce, G. (2002) 'Theory and estimation of the mortgage payment protection insurance decision', Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(2). Click here to download.

Hendershott, P.H., Pryce, G. and White, M. (2002) 'Household Leverage and the Deductibility of Home Mortgage Interest: Evidence from UK House Purchasers', NBER Working Paper No. 9207, Cambridge: MA; http://papers.nber.org/papers/w9207.pdf

Houston, D., Kemp, P. and Pryce, G. (2002) Review of the private rented sector in Wales, Wales: National Assembly for Wales.

Kemp, P. and Pryce, G. (2002) Evaluating the mortgage safety net, London: Council for Mortgage Lenders.

Lynch, E., Stephens, M. and Pryce, G. (2002) Housing and social cohesion in the UK: Report 1, European Commission.

Pryce, G. and Kasparova, D. (2002) Private rented sector supply: an analysis of the Scottish House Condition Survey longitudinal data-set, Edinburgh: Scottish Homes.

Pryce, G. and Keoghan, M. (2002) 'Unemployment insurance for mortgage borrowers: is it viable and does it cover those most in need?' European Journal of Housing Policy, 2(1). Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Lynch, E. (2002) Development of a housing market database for Glasgow, Report to GSPC/Communities Scotland.

Kemp, P. A. and Pryce, G. (2001) 'Evaluating the Mortgage Safety Net', Housing Finance, 52, November 2001, pp. 32-37.

Pryce, G. and Keoghan, M. (2001) 'Determinants of Mortgage Protection Insurance Take-Up', Housing Studies, 16(2), pp.179-198.

Pryce, G. (1999) 'Construction Elasticities and Land Availability: A Two Stage Least Squares Model of Housing Supply Using the Variable Elasticity Approach', Urban Studies, 36(13), pp.2283-2304.

Pryce, G. (1999) 'Work Incentives and Rent: Evidence from Glasgow Housing Associations', Netherlands Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 14(4), pp.343-362.

Bramley, G., Pryce, G. & Satsangi, M. (1999) The Supply Responsiveness of the Private Rented Sector: An International Comparison, London: Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions.

Pryce, G. & Keoghan, M. (1999) Safety Nets for Mortgage Borrowers, Edinburgh: Scottish Homes.

Pryce, G. (1998) 'Income Support for Mortgage Interest and the Crowding Out of Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance', Housing Finance, 39, August 1998, pp.27-31.

Maclennan, D. & Pryce, G. (1998) Missing Links: The Economy, Cities & Housing, London: National Housing Federation.

Gibb, K., Jamieson, J., Maclennan, D. & Pryce, G. (1996) The Development of Owner Occupied Housing Markets in Scotland, Report to Monopolies and Mergers Commission, Aug 1996.

Gibb, K., Kearns, A., Keoghan, M., More, A., & Pryce, G. (1996) Community Ownership Rents: Greater Easterhouse in the Glasgow Context, CHRUS Report to the Greater Easterhouse Community Ownership Forum.

Maclennan, D. and Pryce, G. (1996) 'Global Economic Change, Labour Market Adjustment, and the Challenges for Housing Policies', Urban Studies, 33(10), pp.1849-1865.

Maclennan, D. and Pryce, G. (1996) 'Housing', In Jackson, P. and Lavender, M. (eds) Public Services Yearbook 1996/97, London: Pitman Publishing, pp. 277-284.

Click here for Gwilym Pryce's contact details.

Click here for Gwilym's current CV.

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